Help! My team is choking!

Every Clemson fan has heard it. "Clemson chokes". "Clemson gags three or four times a year". As hard as it is to hear those words as a Clemson fan, you really have to listen if you care about winning championships. Beyond the obvious problem of defining a "choke" or "gag" (they have different meanings to different people), there is some truth in those statements.

I took a look at 5 teams straight up records when favored over the last five years. Why these teams you ask? USC and Texas are known powerhouses that have pulled a number of games out in the clutch and won recent national championships. Virginia Tech is an acknowledged ACC power and Auburn is a solid SEC team. So, I compared where Clemson wants to go (Virginia Tech/ACC Championship), a similar team in a tough conference (Auburn) and two teams with recent championships to Clemson. Ouch. The results are below and include each team’s straight up record when favored and corresponding winning percentage. Ouch again.

1. USC 58-5, 92.06%
2. Texas 50-7, 87.72%
3. Auburn 40-9, 81.63%
4. Virginia Tech 40-12, 76.92%
5. Clemson 25-13, 65.79%

Are there teams out there with worse records when favored than Clemson? Sure. But that's not the point. The point is that to get to the "next level" Clemson needs to win games they are favored in more than 66% of the time. Did you hear that? Clemson loses 1 of every 3 games in which they are favored, while the elite teams of college football lose about 1 of 11 (USC) or 1 of 8 (Texas).

If Clemson wins the games they are favored in 2007 they go 12-1. The same thing goes for 2006. Obviously, those seasons would have played out differently had Clemson won the games in which they were favored, but my point remains valid. Win the games you are favored in and success and the recognition that Clemson craves will come.