Tigers find a way

Clemson overcame a 55 foot halftime buzzer beater, 9 point half time deficit, 15 point deficit early in the second half and mediocre free throw shooting to beat Virginia Tech 86-82 Thursday night in Blacksburg.

K.C. Rivers had 29 points, including 7-10 on three pointers, to lead the Tigers, while Trevor Booker chipped in 21 points and 13 rebounds.

As nice as this win looks on paper, the Tigers still have a ton of room for improvement. Start with free throw shooting (14-21, 66.7%). The Tigers missed two of three in the waning seconds, but luckily that didn't come back to haunt them tonight.

Secondly, it appears my concern with Jerai Grant was well founded:12 minutes, 0 points, 2 rebounds, 4 fouls.

Tigers land Boyd

Tajh Boyd, a 4 star QB per Rivals.com and 5 star per Scout.com, selected Clemson over Ohio State and Oregon today.

This is Clemson's 4th four star committment since Swinney was named head coach on December 1.

Tigers cruise in second half

After struggling for the better part of 19 minutes in the first half the Tigers closed the half with a flurry, then opened up a can on Georgia Tech in the second half.

Terrance Oglesby poured in 18 points and Jerai Grant added 10 points and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench. Trevor Booker and Raymond Sykes also scored in double figures for the Tigers. The Tigers even nailed 74.2% of their free throws (23-31).

As nice as it was to win an ACC game the Tigers still have many questions to be answered. Among them:

1. K.C. Rivers slump. Rivers went 2-7 from the field and finished with 6 points.
2. A team shooting slump continued as the Tigers shot 37.5% from the field.
3. It appears that bigger teams give the Tigers and Trevor Booker problems. See Wake, North Carolina and now Georgia Tech. Booker was also 2-7 from the field, but did pull down 11 rebounds.
4. Still concerned about Grant doing his thing in big games. OK, so he had good games against some of the lesser teams, but how he performs against Virginia Tech and Duke could very well determine how the Tigers fare in those games. I'm not convinced.

Next up at Virginia Tech on Thursday and then Duke at home the following Wednesday (February 4).

Recruiting by computer

Here's an interesting read from Andy Staples at SI.com. Seems that three economists with nothing better to do designed a computer to predict where high school football stars would commit to playing college ball. Staples goes up against the computer for the last 17 uncommitted recruits for 2009.

The economists think a 58-68% average is good. But is it really that difficult at this point in the process to figure out where these guys are going to end up considering the overwhelming amount of information that Staples has access to, including one on one discussions with the recruits?

An early look at the projected final four and champ

Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of defensive efficiency in determining which teams will make the final four. Since that time I've done a bit of research and found that while being in the top 25 in defensive efficiency is typically a must for a final four team, other factors determine which team will emerge from the final four as the champion.

Over the last 5 years the recipe for reaching the final four has looked like this:

DE<=25
OE<=50
RPI<=27

Interestingly enough, once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important. During that same time frame the recipe for winning the national championship has looked like this:

DE<=12
OE<=4
RPI<=16

I have included two tables at the bottom of the page that will periodically keep tabs on this information as the season continues. These are not prognostications, but rather using history as a guideline to determine which teams have the best chance to reach the final four and become the champion. Prior to the tourney in March we will have a "final" list of teams that meet the final four and national champion criteria.

Final Four contenders through games of January 21, 2009

Team	Def Eff Rank	Off Eff Rank	RPI Rank
Duke	3	14	1
Wake Forest	6	48	16
West Virginia	7	28	26
Illinois	9	43	23
Xavier	10	45	6
North Carolina	11	1	4
Arizona State	17	10	19
Pittsburgh	19	2	2
Connecticut	25	5	5

National Championship contenders through games of January 21, 2009

Team	Def Eff Rank	Off Eff Rank	RPI Rank
North Carolina	11	1	4

Analyzing Recruiting Data

Interesting read from SI.com on the trends in college football recruiting. This is not new information or earth shattering news, but teams that come from areas that produce large numbers of prospects tend to fare better (with some exceptions) than those that don't.

Of the 22 schools that won 40 or more games during that span, 16 attracted more than half their players from within 200 miles or from within their state. Of the 44 schools that won fewer than 40 games, only 13 met the homegrown recruiting criteria.

A large part of Clemson's recruits hail from Georgia (within the 200 mile marker) and Florida (outside the 200 mile marker). It's another piece of the puzzle (along with budget) into why certain teams have moved far and away ahead of the pack in college football.

Tarheels beat Tigers

North Carolina got back into the ACC race Wednesday by edging Clemson in Chapel Hill. Clemson falls to 16-2 and 2-2 in the ACC.

Terrance Oglesby led the Tigers with 22 points.

Clemson attempts to get back on track on Sunday by hosting Georgia Tech.

Deacs down Tigers

Much as I feared the Tigers bench didn't contribute much against Wake in a 78-68 loss. The same bench that was lauded in earlier victories struggled to contribute against a top team. Jerai Grant went 1-8 from the field and scored 4 points in 15 minutes (though he did have 9 rebounds). Tanner Smith and Andre Young both went scoreless in a combined 24 minutes of action.

The Tigers also shot only 33.8% from the field, including 5 for 23 (21.7%) from 3 point range, not to mention another bad (55%) night from the free throw line. Add it all up and the Tigers were lucky to lose by 10.

It doesn't get any easier with a trip to UNC looming.

7th graders are now prospects

No wonder they're called diaper dandies. The NCAA has changed the definition of a prospect for men's basketball to include 7th graders and above for men's basketball. Are you listening Billy Gillespie?

The return of C.J. Spiller

C.J. Spiller decided (against mamma's wishes) to return for his Senior season.

Wake Forest thoughts

This is going to be a tough match up for Clemson. Wake is big and tall in the front court and very athletic in the back court. Those top recruiting classes are finally paying off at Wake. My guess is that the Tigers have a hard time rebounding and scoring inside and will have to rely on the 3 and the press to have a chance.

Here's an article about Wake that mentions that the Wake coach keeps the defensive efficiency ratings by Ken Pomeroy taped to the locker room wall as a reminder. These ratings obviously mean something to someone other than stat geeks.

Early signing day in college football

There appears to be some steam behind this idea this go round. I don't necessarily think it's a bad idea, but as the writer points out, not a cure all.

On a side note, once again South Carolina finds itself in the middle of a mess with a recruit and has been banned from the high school. Once again, Spurrier is not held accountable for anything - it's all Ron Cooper's fault.

I'm not saying Cooper isn't at fault, but if the guy shouldn't have been offered a scholarship, but did so anyway, isn't it up to the head coach to rectify that situation as soon as possible, not over a month later?

Defensive efficiency

By now both of my loyal readers know that I am a believer in a defense first philosophy, no matter the sport. With Florida's win over Oklahoma Thursday, 8 of the last 9 national champions in football have had top 10 defenses statistically speaking. Let that settle in for a moment. The old saying "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" was never more relevant than it is today. Defense wins, not the fancy offenses of the Big 12 for example, which sputtered through the bowl season.

We can look to other sports to find the same principle. Just like in football, defense wins championships in basketball and baseball (more to come on this, too), not offense.

Ken Pomeroy has a ton of statistical information on his web site, for those that like the "statistical" aspect of sports. One stat that has caught my attention is one called "Defensive Efficiency". Fact is that no college basketball team has made the final four in the last five years without being in the top 25 in this category. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch.

What does this mean for my beloved Tigers who are sitting at #27 after yesterday's defensive struggle with N.C. State? Not a lot at this point. But as the season wears on and works towards a conclusion, you can get an idea of how far a team will (or won't) advance in the tourney by keeping an eye on this number, moreso than the RPI.

What it tells me at a glance right now though is that teams like Oklahoma (45), Marquette (48) and Michigan State (52) have some work to do.

The most interesting case at this moment is Notre Dame. The Irish are sitting at #13 in the polls and have an RPI of 61. Their Defensive Efficiency rating of 166 tells us their ranking and, to a lesser extent their RPI rankings, are inflated, atleast at this point.

Do-it-all Booker leads Tigers

Trevor Booker had 23 points, 6 rebounds, 6 blocked shots, 3 steals and an assist to lead Clemson over N.C. State by a score of 63-51.

Free throw shooting remains iffy, as the Tigers hit 13-20 (65%) from the line.

The defense rests

The Florida Gators once again showed that a top 10 defense, not a point-a-minute offense, is the main ingredient to winning the national championship.

Here are our final rankings for the season.

1. Florida 159.1236

2. Texas 155.5915

3. Utah 153.5876

4. Oklahoma 150.0000

5. Georgia 145.8306

6. Alabama 145.5582

7. USC 143.8268

8. Ohio State 139.1079

9. Texas Tech 137.1687

10.TCU 136.7809

11.Boise State 136.5870

12.Penn State 135.9405

13.Michigan State 135.6820

14.Pittsburgh 133.8720

15.Oregon 133.0963

16.Mississippi 129.0886

16.Oklahoma State 129.0886

18.Missouri 128.6915

19.Oregon State 128.2482

20.Cincinnati 127.8511

21.Iowa 127.0847

22.BYU 126.6322

23.Nebraska 125.9858

24.Florida State 124.6283

25.West Virginia 124.5637

Tigers hold off Alabama, remain unbeaten

Clemson held off Alabama 66-59 on Tuesday night to move to 15-0. The Tigers got 19 points from Trevor Booker and 12 each from K.C. Rivers and Terrance Oglesby.

Once again, however, the Tigers saw a large lead (15 points) almost completely disappear with bad foul shooting and unforced turnovers.

After hitting 9 of their first 11 free throws the Tigers then went through a 2 for 9 stretch that let Alabama back in the game and finished the night 13 for 22 (59.1%) from the line.

The Tigers return to ACC play by hosting N.C. State (9-3) on Saturday.

Tigers land 4 star DE

Clemson reeled in it's 2nd 4 Star player in three days on Monday, when 6'4, 260 lb DE Leon Mackey gave the Tigers his commitment.

Mackey hopes to enroll on January 17th, provided he is cleared by the NCAA.

4 Star WR selects Clemson

Dabo Swinney picked up his second commitment during the USA Army All-Star game on Saturday as Bryce McNeal selected the Tigers over Oregon.

McNeal is the 14th highest rated WR by Rivals.com and 27th ranked WR by Scout.com.

Tigers remain unbeaten

Clemson beat East Carolina 79-66 on Saturday to move to 14-0. Jerai Grant came up big off the bench again with 14 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocked shots in 18 minutes of action. K.C. Rivers led the Tigers with 18 points.

Clemson hosts Alabama (10-3) on Tuesday.

Huskers edge Tigers

Nebraska rallied in the second half to beat Clemson 26-21. The QB play for Clemson was atrocious, not to mention an idiotic personal foul by C.J. Spiller. The defense definitely kept the Tigers in this game as the O was putrid.

Lots O' Work to do before next season.