Sunday, January 11, 2009

Defensive efficiency

By now both of my loyal readers know that I am a believer in a defense first philosophy, no matter the sport. With Florida's win over Oklahoma Thursday, 8 of the last 9 national champions in football have had top 10 defenses statistically speaking. Let that settle in for a moment. The old saying "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" was never more relevant than it is today. Defense wins, not the fancy offenses of the Big 12 for example, which sputtered through the bowl season.

We can look to other sports to find the same principle. Just like in football, defense wins championships in basketball and baseball (more to come on this, too), not offense.

Ken Pomeroy has a ton of statistical information on his web site, for those that like the "statistical" aspect of sports. One stat that has caught my attention is one called "Defensive Efficiency". Fact is that no college basketball team has made the final four in the last five years without being in the top 25 in this category. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch.

What does this mean for my beloved Tigers who are sitting at #27 after yesterday's defensive struggle with N.C. State? Not a lot at this point. But as the season wears on and works towards a conclusion, you can get an idea of how far a team will (or won't) advance in the tourney by keeping an eye on this number, moreso than the RPI.

What it tells me at a glance right now though is that teams like Oklahoma (45), Marquette (48) and Michigan State (52) have some work to do.

The most interesting case at this moment is Notre Dame. The Irish are sitting at #13 in the polls and have an RPI of 61. Their Defensive Efficiency rating of 166 tells us their ranking and, to a lesser extent their RPI rankings, are inflated, atleast at this point.

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