NU thoughts

Last week I predicted a 21-17 Clemson victory in the Gator Bowl. I'll stick with that prediction, though I do admit to being a little concerned about this game. Most of this concern comes from not having seen the Huskers play more than a handful of plays this year - so I have no idea of what to expect. Some of it comes from the long layoff between game 12 and the bowl game for both teams - who knows what effect that will have on either or both teams. Some of it comes from common sense - Nebraska is improved under Bo Pelini.

When I look at Nebraska's season a couple of things stand out -

Nebraska is ranked 12th in total offense. The bulk of those numbers, however, were put up against Western Michigan, New Mexico State, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State. The Huskers faced two defenses in the top 22 all year (San Jose State and Virginia Tech) and were held to 315 and 333 yards respectively.

Nebraska's 65th ranked defense may be a little under rated - they held Texas Tech to 421 yards and Missouri to 462 - not bad. On the other hand, they gave up 377 yards to the 107th ranked Virginia Tech offense at home (but this was relatively early in the season).

Nebraska has scored at least 4 non-offensive touchdowns, so this could be something to look for.

I'm not sure Nebraska is used to the speed they are going to see on the field on Thursday. C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford are world class sprinters, so the big play factor would seem to be in Clemson's favor.

Overall, I expect a close, relatively low scoring game. Nebraska has the size advantage, Clemson has the speed advantage. When the Huskers play a bad team (or non-BCS team) they win. Win they play a good team they typically lose. In the end, Clemson will make one more play and survive in Jacksonville.

Tigers outlast Gamecocks

Terrance Oglesby had a career high 25 points, including 6-10 shooting on 3 pointers, and three other Tigers scored in double figures as Clemson beat rival South Caraloser 98-86 on Tuesday. The Tigers are now 13-0.

Freshman Andre Young stepped up big, playing 26 minutes, scoring 13 points and dishing out 8 assist while only committing one turnover. Young's extended playing time was the result of early foul trouble for Demontez Stitt.

The Tigers ripped the nets for 55% from the floor and 48% from three point land. The Tigers also shot 80% (16-20) from the free throw line to counteract the Gamecocks 10 more attempts from the line.

On the bad side, the Tigers committed 20 turnovers and saw an 18 point lead whittled to 8 before putting the game away. Also, once again, Clemson fell behind early, but quickly erased a 14-3 deficit. That's fine against Miami and South Carolina, but won't cut it against the better ACC teams.

Clemson hosts East Carolina (8-4) Saturday.

Hoopla

Amazing what one big win can do for a basketball program. Clemson's convincing win at Miami last week has everyone hopping on the Tiger bandwagon.

As Clemson climbs in the polls Seth Davis of Sports Illustrated thinks the Tigers look like a Sweet 16 team and Jason King of Rivals.com wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers beat North Carolina.

I was also impressed with the victory over Miami on the road, especially after falling behind 21-9 early, but I'm not sure this team is there yet. Despite Jerai Grant's coming out party against Hurricanes, I still have questions about the Tigers bench that may not be exposed until the ACC tournament (potentially 3 games in three days) or the NCAA tournament (foul trouble).

The Tigers face an improved South Carolina team in Columbia tonight in another early season test.

The man with a plan

When Dabo Swinney was named interim head coach on October 13 I was one of the many who questioned the choice. A WR coach with no coordinator experience chosen over two former head coaches? A guy who was working in real estate development just 5 years prior? This is the guy Terry Don Phillips chose to lead this dysfunctional, underperforming group of misfits that had the team on the brink of collapse?

Shortly thereafter though I began hearing positive things about Swinney. Very positive things. He was universally lauded for his handling of the AARC fiasco in 2006 as the athletic department's representative during those meetings and this appears to be the setting from which Terry Don Phillips first became aware of Swinney's leadership.

Swinney's first move upon being hired as interim? Canning Rob Spence. Bingo. Spence was a good man and may end up as a good OC at Syracuse, but his time at Clemson had come and gone. The players had lost confidence in his play calling and nothing positive would have come of his continued employment.

In his initial press conference that day Swinney said the Tigers would be the toughest team on the field under his leadership. In 5 of the 6 games under his leadership he proved correct.

He's allowed his players to play, his stars, especially C.J. Spiller, to shine and infused an air of confidence, toughness and responsibility in the team. In fact, they've become a team again.

There are those that will shrug off the 4-2 record under Swinney saying things like "We would have had the same record under Bowden". Really? When did Tommy Bowden beat Boston College? My guess is that this team would have gone 2-4 in the same six games under Bowden, maybe even 1-5. I don't think this team beats BC on the road under Bowden/Spence. I doubt this team wins at Virginia under Bowden/Spence. I question whether this team would have beaten SC under Bowden/Spence. Yes, Bowden had a nice record against SC (7-2), but remember under my scenario Clemson would have been 4-7 and had no shot at a bowl game at this point. My guess is they would have folded and ended 4-8.

But Swinney wouldn't let that happen. Instead this team crushed SC and is now 7-5 and playing on New Years Day in the Gator Bowl. Nothing short of remarkable.

Swinney also presented Phillips with a master plan on how to resurrect Clemson football. It's clear that Swinney had been preparing to be a head coach for some time.

Swinney's plan?

· Take less salary as the head coach to surround himself with proven, veteran assistants. It's laughable how the media chides Clemson for 'saving money' by hiring Swinney on the cheap, when in fact it was Swinney who requested much less money as part of his plan.

· Establish a strong administrative support aspect of the football program. As part of his research Swinney came across the fact that Alabama had a 20 person strong administrative support team for football. Clemson had a 6 person support team. Swinney hired Woody McCorvey as Director of Football Operations, a position that didn't exist previously. This is an area of the program that will continue to be developed and improved.

· Paying top dollar ($400K plus) for a defensive coordinator that is interested in playing Swinney's preferred attacking, blitzing style.

· Embraced the history, traditions and faces of the Clemson program. From putting Jeff Davis on the staff, to reaching out to Danny Ford, to rubbing the rock and creating the Tiger Walk, Dabo has done the right things to generate excitement around the program.

With each loss, questionable play call or strategy move "message board guy" and "national media guy" will be howling for Swinney's head and deriding Phillips' decision to hire him. It's more predictable than death and taxes.

I'm not privy to Swinney's entire plan, but it's apparent that he knows what he is doing and has a plan to bring championships to Clemson.

Upon being named permanent head coach on December 1 Swinney was asked if he thought Clemson was taking a chance on him. "No. I've never failed at anything in my life." "Failing" in college football is in the eye of the beholder, but my guess is Swinney doesn't fail.

In that same first press conference Swinney was asked when he thought Clemson could expect to win a championship. "Next year. It'll always be next year as long as I'm the coach". Bingo again.

He's young, energetic, passionate about Clemson football, a good recruiter and pays attention to detail. We've seen how he handles adversity.

Whether Phillips made the right decision or not won't be known for some time, but I for one believe he chose the best man for the job.

Clemson whips Canes 91-72

Down by 12 early, the Tigers rally on the road and beat Miami handily. K.C. Rivers had 28 points and Terrance Oglesby scored all of his 17 in the second half to lead Clemson. Jerai Grant added 9 points (7 in a 90 second span in the second half), 5 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 blocks in 17 minutes off the bench.

Grant played an important role. He entered when Trevor Booker picked up his 4th foul with the game still in doubt and proceeded to play lights out to help the Tigers pull away down the stretch.

The Tigers are off until a Decmeber 30th game at South Carolina.

How bad is ACC football?

You hear it every Saturday (and most Thursday’s) during the college football season. The ACC is “down”. The ACC is terrible. The ACC should not have an automatic berth in the BCS. On and on and on by the talking heads.

While I’ll be the first to acknowledge that the ACC doesn’t have an elite team (or two), I would also argue that the ACC isn’t as bad as some would lead you to believe.

Here are some facts that lend credence to my point:

(1) The ACC is 6-4 against the vaunted SEC in head to head matchups (2 more coming up in bowl games).

(2) The ACC is 4-0 against the Big 12 in head to head matchups (1 more coming in the Gator Bowl).

(3) The ACC is ranked #1 in the Sagarin ratings.

(4) The ACC has 10 teams (of 12) in bowl games.

(5) The ACC had 20 former players selected to the Pro Bowl this year vs. 13 for the SEC, 8 for the Big 12 and 7 for the Big 10.

(6) Over the past three years the ACC has had 25 first round selections in the NFL draft, more than any other conference and the ACC’s 115 draft picks overall is also first among conferences.

(7) In the past 3 years an ACC defensive player has been the first defensive player selected in the NFL draft.

While I’m not suggesting that Virginia Tech or Boston College would whip Oklahoma and Texas on a regular basis, I am suggesting that the hype that surrounds the Big 12 and SEC has more to do with television dollars than the quality of football and football players in the conferences.

The two worst ACC teams had 4 (Duke) and 5 (Virginia) wins respectively. Meanwhile, the Big 12 had 5 teams with losing records, the Big 10 and SEC had 4.

What it suggests to me is that these leagues (especially the Big 12) are top heavy as opposed to the “parity” of the ACC. The Big 12 has 5 teams in the AP poll, but they also have 5 teams with losing records. Conversely, while the ACC only has two teams in the AP top 25, it also only has two teams with losing records.

Last time I looked Iowa State, Texas A&M and Baylor were still in the Big 12, but you wouldn’t know that listening to the “Big 12 is the best conference” crowd. For their purposes the Big 12 membership stops at 5 and these three teams are the never talked about step-children in the group home or “institution”.

Often times when you hear an announcer or color analyst praising one conference and bashing another it relates directly to what TV or radio contract a particular conference is tied to. For example, expect to hear ESPN heap more praises (if that's possible) on the SEC in the future as the network begins broadcasting SEC games.

Gator Bowl tickets become a hot item

Clemson has sold it's initial allotment of 13,500 tickets and has requested more. The Clemson athletic department is expecting 30,000 Clemson fans to travel to Jacksonville for the Gator Bowl on January 1.

Most of these fans will be staying in hotels and buying food, gas and other items in the Jacksonville area. And Florida State still wonders why Clemson was chosen over the Seminoles for the Gator Bowl.

ACC Bowl Predictions

I finished the ACC season with a 65-31 record straight up (67.8%) and 49-32-1 record (60.5%)against the spread.

The bowl season is typically unpredictable with the long layoffs before the teams play and the motivation or non-motivation of given teams. Nonetheless, here are my predictions for the bowl games involving ACC teams.

Wake Forest 20 (-3) vs. Navy 16
North Carolina (E) 23 West Virginia 21
Florida State (-5) 27 Wisconsin 21
California (-7) 31 Miami 20
Rutgers 23 N.C. State (+7) 20
Maryland (+ 1 ½) 27 Nevada 24
Boston College (-4) 26 Vanderbilt 17
Georgia Tech (-3 ½) 31 LSU 24
Clemson (-2 ½) 21 Nebraska 17
Virginia Tech (+ 1 ½) 21 Cincinnati 20

Tigers destroy Ospreys, 76-36

Clemson moved to 11-0 in workman-like fashion behind Trevor Booker's 16 points and 10 rebounds on Tuesday.

Yet you still have to wonder about the overall depth of this team beyond 8 or maybe 9 players (if Jerai Grant is contributing that night). Tanner Smith and Andre Young appear to be able to contribute off the bench, but Bobo Baciu appears to be a longer term project and Brian Narcisse only saw 3 minutes of action in a 40 point rout.

Secondarily, free throws are cropping up as an issue again. The Tigers were 12-19 (63%) for the game. I realize two of those misses were by seldom used Zach Anderson, but when your point guards combine to go 4-8, you have to be a little concerned.

Clemson plays at Miami (7-2) on Sunday in the ACC opener for both teams.

1 vs. 343

The Tigers finally cracked the top 25 on Monday and also reached the top spot in the RPI rankings. To celebrate this momentous feat the Tigers face a team on the complete opposite end of the spectrum in North Florida - who happens to be ranked 343 out of 343 teams in RPI at this point in the season.

North Florida's had a rough go of it so far, losing by 15 to Savannah State, 33 to BYU, 34 to Cal Poly, 18 to Rice, 8 to Charleston Southern, 15 to Lipscomb and 34 to Belmont. Ouch.

The Tigers still have work to do (and some bench help to find) before facing Miami in the ACC opener on Sunday.

Bowl Goodies

Interesting story from the Greenville News on what Clemson players receive as gifts from the Gator Bowl. Another interesting facet is the financial terms - it really doesn't matter what bowl the Tigers are in as they share bowl revenue equally with the other members of the ACC. So whether they play in Boise (Humanitarian) or Miami (Orange) they end up with the same amount of cash at the end (assuming the same number of ACC teams are in bowls).

Tigers begin prep for Huskers

Clemson began preparing for Nebraska on Friday and continued the work on Saturday. The Tigers face the Cornhuskers January 1 in the Gator Bowl.

Dabo lands first commit

Four star safety Jonathan Meeks of Hargrave Military Academy became Dabo Swinney's first commitment as head coach. The 6'2 193 lb Meeks played high school ball in Rock Hill, SC before attending Hargrave. He will enroll in Clemson in January.

Update on Korn and R. Taylor

It seems that Willy Korn's injury has been around since his original injury over 15 months ago. It makes you wonder how these things get by the coaches and training staff when year after year, quarterback after quarterback, we hear that guys are 100% then they have surgery. Simply amazing.

Also an interesting tidbit on Rendrick Taylor and speculation whether he will be back at Clemson next year or use his final year of eligibility somewhere else.

Tigers crush Dogs

Ten Clemson Tigers broke into the scoring column as the Tigers cruised past S.C. State 90-63 Saturday to move to 10-0. K.C. Rivers had 19 points and Trevor Booker 18 to lead the Tigers.

The Tigers next game is against North Florida (when did they start playing basketball?) on Tuesday.

Maryland-Nevada setting record pace for bowl tix

People wonder why Clemson was invited to the Gator Bowl with a 7-5 record? Uhh, how about fan support during an economic downturn. I'm sure more people would be willing to travel to Jacksonville for New Years than Boise in December, but here's a report on the ticket sales for each school in the Humanitarian Bowl between Maryland and Nevada.

As of Monday afternoon the University of Maryland says it's sold about 16 tickets to the game. The University of Nevada says it's sold 8 so far.

Tigers officially hire 3 new coaches

Two had previously coached at Clemson (one of these is a former Clemson player - Pearman), all three coached at Alabama as some point in their careers.

Power Rankings - Pre-Bowl

1. Florida 156.0439
2. Oklahoma 153.8462
3. Texas 152.2409
4. Utah 150.0000
5. Alabama 149.2566
6. Ohio State 142.5070
7. Georgia 142.0868
8. Texas Tech 141.8067
9. Boise State 140.6863
10.USC 139.8459
11.Penn State 139.5658
12.Michigan State 139.0756
13.Pittsburgh 138.3754
14.Oklahoma State 132.7031
15.BYU 132.2829
16.TCU 132.0278
17.Cincinnati 131.9328
18.Oregon 128.2314
19.Georgia Tech 126.8207
20.Missouri 124.5637
21.Boston College 123.9819
22.Mississippi 123.6695
22.Northwestern 123.6695
24.Iowa 123.4594
25.Oregon State 123.1093

Tigers nearly flame out against Liberty

Clemson (9-0) avoided a disastrous loss by edging Liberty 80-75 Sunday at Littlejohn Coliseum. K.C. Rivers led the Tigers with 32 points.

Week 15 ACC Prediction

In the final week of the regular season I had one of my worst weeks of the year against the spread going 2-5-1, while managing to go 5-3 straight up. That brings my totals to: 64-31 (67.4%) straight up and 48-32-1 (60.0%) against the spread.

This weeks prediction:

Virginia Tech (-1) 17 Boston College 14

Clemson edges Illinois

An old, ugly friend came back to visit the Tigers (8-0) on Tuesday in Champaign - missed free throws. But the Tigers used a stifling press to force 17 turnovers and held Illinois to 2-8 shooting in the final 5 minutes, including not getting a shot off at the buzzer, to edge the Illini 76-74 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.

The well-rounded Tiger attack showed 4 starters in double figures, despite Terrance Oglesby only taking 5 shots in 26 minutes of action.

While the victory was nice, it certainly showed some areas that could use improvement and especially that Clemson's younger players, including Tanner Smith and Andre Young, have some work to do before being able to contribute in ACC play.

Former Tiger Danny Pearman hired

Dabo Swinney hired former Clemson Tiger Danny Pearman to his coaching staff on Tuesday. It is unclear at this time what Pearman's responsibilities will be.

It's also being reported that Swinney is interested in former Mississippi State defensive coordinator Charlie Harbison to join the staff in some capacity, most likely as defensive backs coach, but this has not been confirmed.

Koenning Resigns

In a widely expected move Les Koenning resigned Tuesday as Clemson's defensive coordinator. What this means as far as who will be the DC during the bowl game goes is anyones guess at this point.

Tigers Headed to Gator Bowl

From no bowl to New Years Day in 4 quarters. That's Clemson's reward for thrashing the Gamecocks last Saturday. The Tigers will play Nebraska in Jacksonville on January 1, 2009.

Yabba Dabo Do!

Dabo Swinney was named Clemson's 25th Head Football Coach today.

Power Rankings after week 14

1. Alabama 153.4314
2. Florida 152.3809
3. Texas 152.2409
4. Oklahoma 151.4006
5. Utah 150.0000
6. Ohio State 142.5070
7. Georgia 142.0868
8. Texas Tech 141.8067
9. Boise State 140.6863
10.USC 140.1833
11.Penn State 139.5658
12.Michigan State 139.0756
13.Pittsburgh 135.5233
14.Oklahoma State 132.7031
15.BYU 132.2829
16.TCU 132.0728
17.Cincinnati 130.9524
18.Ball State 128.7815
19.Oregon 128.4314
20.Boston College 127.9412
21.Georgia Tech 126.8207
21.Missouri 126.8207
23.Mississippi 123.6695
23.Northwestern 123.6695
25.Iowa 123.4594