Updated List of Candidates

Here's an updated look at the most likely candidates to replace Tommy Bowden with my thoughts on each. These are in the order that I think will be most likely, taking into account things I have read and heard.

1. Dabo Swinney - Interim Head Coach, Clemson University
I don't think there is any doubt that Terry Don Phillips wants Swinney to succeed and to be able to name him the permanent head coach of the Tigers. The question is what will it take for Swinney to "succeed"? What if he goes 1-5 or 2-4 in his trial run at the helm?

Swinney took over a team in disarray in the middle of the season 5 days before a game with a divided locker room and a worried coaching staff. Oh yeah, the team is all beat to heck, too, and was without it's marquee player for his first game. Swinney quickly united the fans, team, administration and entire Clemson community. He's said all the right things. He's funny. He's likable. He's a winner. Does Phillips have the stones to hire a guy with no head coaching experience (outside of the six game trial by fire)? How will the Clemson nation react? If Swinney wins a 3 or more of the final 5 I say he's in without a doubt and may even have the blessing of the Clemson Nation.

2. Will Muschamp - Defensive Coordinator, University of Texas
The fear with Muschamp is that he will walk once a bigger job comes, open, say Texas, Auburn, or Tennessee. Well, all three of those jobs are currently filled though one can see the writing on the wall in Auburn and Phil Fulmer may not survive the year in Knoxville.
If those two SEC jobs open up (in addition to potentially others) will Muschamp even consider a job in the ACC?

3. Bobby Johnson - Head Coach, Vanderbilt University
Vanderbilt, not surprisingly, is dropping like a rock in the creek. Rumor has it that at least one powerful Clemson booster wants Johnson. The fans are lukewarm, at best.

4. Tommy Tuberville - Head Coach, Auburn University
Are we really going to hire a guy that is about to get fired? More detractors than supporters among Clemson faithful.

5. Gary Patterson - Head Coach, Texas Christian University
I like him, but I'm not sure he has more than 5 supporters among Clemson fans.

6. Jim Grobe - Head Coach Wake Forest University
He says he isn't interested though who knows if that is true. Some Clemson fans love him, some hate him. I'm indifferent at this point.

7. Lane Kiffin - Unemployed.
Reportedly no one has been crossed off the original "short" list, but that begs the question was Kiffin ever on it? Phillips said himself that it is important to have ties to the region and that Clemson wasn't Los Angeles. Hmmmm.

Week 10 ACC Predictions

A little bit of a strange week last week going only 2-4 straight up, but 4-2 against the spread, bringing my season totals to 46-20 straight up and 34-18 against the spread.

Here are my picks for week 10:

Miami (-1) 28 @ Virginia 26
Florida State (- 1 ½) 27 @ Georgia Tech 21
Wake Forest 17 Duke (+7) 13
Boston College 21 Clemson (+5) 17

Stats are for champions (part 3)

In installment 3 of “Stats are for champions” we take a look at the stats for teams still alive in the national championship race and how their stats aligned with the history of the 10 previous national champions.

Teams eliminated this past Saturday: LSU and Ohio State each suffered their second loss, while Oklahoma State was edged by Texas.

In summary, the past 8 national champions (starting in 2000) look like this: Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

With that in mind, here is an updated look at the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC – 1
Alabama – 5
Penn State – 8
Florida - 13
Georgia – 21
Texas – 43
Oklahoma - 54
Texas Tech - 58

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

After it’s victory over Ohio State Saturday Penn State is at or above every marker, but yet aren’t even guaranteed a shot at the BCS title game at this point, even if they remain undefeated. As long as an SEC team (Alabama) and a Big 12 team (Texas or Texas Tech) remain unbeaten Penn State may be on the outside looking in. The best the Lions can hope for is a Texas Tech victory this week and then hope that the Red Raiders stumble down the stretch (OU and Oklahoma State are still on their schedule).

Texas travels to Texas Tech this week and Georgia and Florida square off in Jacksonville. The view here is that a Tech loss will eliminate the Red Raiders, but a loss won’t necessarily eliminate Texas. The loser of Georgia-Florida will be eliminated. Again, this is a huge week in settling the national picture and really getting down to the nuts and bolts of who is left with a shot at the title. We'll continue to update this as the season progresses.

Conference Power Rankings after week 9

1. SEC 39.00
2. Big 12 41.50
3. Big 10 42.27
4. ACC 46.25
5. Big East 46.63
6. Mountain West 54.11
7. PAC 10 57.60
8. WAC 72.78
9. Conference USA 83.67
10. Sun Belt 85.25
11. MAC 89.92

Power Rankings after week 9

1. Texas 163.3403
2. Alabama 155.9874
3. Georgia 150.2101
4. Boise State 149.5978
5. Utah 147.3740
6. Oklahoma State 143.2773
7. Penn State 142.9505
8. Michigan State 142.3903
9. Florida 141.2965
10.Ohio State 139.9626
11.Oklahoma 139.8109
12.USC 134.9340
13.Missouri 133.6135
14.Texas Tech 133.4034
15.Minnesota 133.0882
16.North Carolina 132.7731
17.BYU 132.1429
18.TCU 130.7190
19.Florida State 129.5318
20.Virgina 127.8361
21.Pittsburgh 127.7311
22.Ball State 125.4202
23.South Florida 123.4244
24.LSU 123.4094
25.Notre Dame 121.9688

Week 9 ACC Predictions

Not a bad week last week: 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. Bringing my season total to 44-16 straight up and 30-16 against the spread.

On to week 9 we go:

Wake (-3) 20 Miami 16
UNC (-3) 21 BC 17
Vanderbilt 28 Duke (+9 ½) 21
Maryland 27 North Carolina State (+10 ½) 17
Georgia Tech 27 Virginia (-11 ½) 20
Virginia Tech (+4½) 19 Florida State 17

Stats are for champions (part 2)

Last week we took a look at the stats for teams still alive in the national championship race and how their stats aligned with the history of the 10 previous national champions.

In summary, the past 8 national champions (starting in 2000) look like this: Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

With that in mind, here is an updated look at the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC - 2
Penn State – 8
Ohio State – 10
Georgia – 12
Florida - 15
Alabama - 16
LSU - 24
Oklahoma - 34
Texas – 39
Oklahoma State - 47
Texas Tech - 58

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

Penn State’s rushing defense fell to #23 after last Saturday’s game, but they are at or above the other markers. If Penn State wins this week at Ohio State most observers feel they will play in the national championship game, due to their relatively week remaining schedule and the fact that the Big 10 does not have a championship game. The loser of this game will be eliminated in my opinion, due to the perceived weakness of the Big 10.

Either LSU or Georgia is going to suffer their second loss this week when they meet in Baton Rouge, and the loser is most likely going to be eliminated from this discussion. Georgia still has to play Florida next week and whoever survives will still have to win an SEC Championship game.

Texas or Oklahoma State is going to suffer their first loss this week and if it is Oklahoma State that loses that battle, they are probably out of the race, too.

So this is a huge week in settling the national picture and really getting down to the nuts and bolts of who is left with a shot at the title.

We'll continue to update this as the season progresses.

Conference Power Rankings after week 8

1. SEC 37.42
2. Big 10 41.45
3. Big 12 43.75
4. ACC 46.92
5. Big East 49.88
6. Mountain West 53.56
7. PAC 10 57.50
8. WAC 69.89
9. Sun Belt 84.38
10. C-USA 84.83
11. MAC 92.08

Power Rankings after week 8

1. Alabama 158.3433
1. Texas 158.3433
3. Oklahoma State 149.4598
4. Boise State 149.0196
5. Utah 137.3740
6. Ohio State 145.7983
7. Georgia 145.4982
8. Pittsburgh 145.3782
9. Michigan State 144.0126
10.Oklahoma 141.4166
11.Penn State 136.3445
12.Florida 136.1344
13.Minnesota 132.6531
14.South Florida 132.5330
15.Vanderbilt 132.1729
16.TCU 131.4076
17.BYU 131.2125
17.Missouri 131.2125
19.USC 130.6723
20.Ball State 128.6915
21.LSU 128.1513
22.Northwestern 127.7311
23.Texas Tech 127.3710
24.North Carolina 126.1705
25.Notre Dame 123.5294

The Candidates

Here’s a look at the most likely candidates to replace Tommy Bowden with my thoughts on each.

1. Will Muschamp – Defensive Coordinator, University of Texas
There are two major concerns with Muschamp. First, he has never been a head coach so no one really knows how he will do as the head man. As a defensive coordinator your main job is to plan and scheme for your opponent and focus solely on defense. As the head coach you need to worry more about the team as a whole and make decisions in the CEO mode. When to go for it or punt, call a timeout or kick the field goal.

Also, a large part of the head coaching role is to placate boosters and fans (aka “glad handing"), not to mention the AD and the school’s administration. In other words, things not directly related to the football field. Is this something Muschamp wants to do and will be able to do? Will his personality allow him to do this effectively? Huge question.

Which leads us to issue #2 with Muschamp: His fiery personality resonates with players and fans like no other – as the defensive coordinator. Would that translate to a head coaching position? There’s a train of thought that the head man needs to be cool, calm and collected. Not a head butting maniac.

He’ll get his chance next year – somewhere. The question is will it be at Clemson. In a lot of ways, it’s a natural fit. In some others, it’s questionable.

Status: Muschamp is aware of Clemson’s interest.

2. Gary Patterson – Head Coach, Texas Christian University
What does a 68-26 record in the Mountain West Conference get you? Tons of respect nationally, but plenty of questions from the Clemson faithful. He’s beat good teams, in much better conferences, but that’s not enough for some. He’s been in Texas for too long. Why hasn’t someone else picked him up if he is so great (Minnesota did offer him $2 million, which he turned down)? Can he recruit in the southeast?

Status: Patterson is aware of Clemson’s interest.

3. Dabo Swinney - Interim Head Coach, Clemson University
Talk about having your hands full. Taking over a team in disarray in the middle of the season 5 days before a game with a divided locker room and a worried coaching staff. Oh yeah, the team is all beat to heck, too, and will be without its marquee player for his first game.

What has Swinney done in those 4 days since becoming head man? He’s been a refreshing breath of fresh air. Attempted to unite the fans, team, administration and entire Clemson community. He’s said all the right things. He’s funny. He’s likable. He’s a winner.

Swinney is auditioning for a head job, whether it is the Clemson gig or another one. Make no mistake – the next 7 weeks will go a long way towards determining Swinney’s future. If the first few days are any indication his future is bright, whether it’s at Clemson or somewhere else. Swinney has nothing to lose and is going for broke. Which begs the question – if he is hired permanently will he go for broke next year, too or will he retreat to coach speak, non-answers, and the conservative game plans that we’ve seen for 10 years?

Status: As interim head coach Swinney is auditioning for the head job and has a slight inside track. Terry Don Phillips wants Swinney to succeed and will have a tough tough decision to make if he does.

4. Jim Grobe - Head Coach Wake Forest University
For all the talk about the great job Grobe has done at Wake, his record in 6 plus years is only 50-40 overall and 26-32 in the "weak" ACC. His reputation took a huge leap when he led Wake to the 2006 ACC title. You know, the ACC that everyone says may be the worst conference in big time football. So which is it? Is he a great coach who led the smallest 1-A school to a championship or is he an average coach who led a redshirt-senior laden team to a conference championship in the worst conference in America?

Probably a little of both. Not many people argue that the ACC is down as a football conference. Still, he won the ACC at Wake Forest. On the other hand, he had three straight losing seasons at Wake before breaking through and multiple losing seasons with a .500 overall record at Ohio University before Wake. Not very enticing for Clemson fans with ideas of grandeur and big name coaches.

On the other hand, Grobe’s teams are focused, well coached and make few mistakes. Something Clemson fans pine for. The Clemson nation is torn on this one.

Status: Reports have surfaced that Grobe was interested in Clemson last year when it was rumored that Bowden was moving on to Arkansas. Whether that interest remains on Grobe’s side is unknown. I believe it does remain on the Clemson side.

5. Bobby Johnson - Head Coach, Vanderbilt University
What’s not to love? He’s Clemson alum and former player who had the best national story going at Vanderbilt until last weeks upset loss.

Clemson fans are lukewarm at best to Johnson. Some LOVE the idea. Most HATE it. The knock? Start with this being his 7th season at Vanderbilt and none of the others finished with more than 5 wins. There are two 2-10 seasons in there, along with an 11-40 SEC record. And oh yeah, he’s 57 years old.

There is very little slack cut for him with respect to Vandy’s competing with the big boys of the SEC while adhering to Vandy’s strict academic standards.

Status: Surprisingly little support for a Clemson alum and former player.

6. Tommy Tuberville - Head Coach, Auburn University
Wow! A head coach from an SEC school wants to come to the lowly ACC? Apparently Tuberville is interested in getting out of the chaos at Auburn. Reportedly he was interested in the Florida State job before Jimbo Fisher became crown prince in Tallahassee.

He’s 82-34 at Auburn and 51-25 in the SEC, has an undefeated season, one SEC championship and 2 SEC west titles.

What’s not to love? He’s 57 years old and many believe his best years are behind him. 9-4 last year and 4-3 so far in 2008. Some see him as a Tommy Bowden clone in more than just first name. Does he have the fire that Clemson needs or is he just trying to get out of a bad situation?

Status: The Tiger Nation is lukewarm on Tuberville. He has a few supporters, but many more detractors.

7. Lane Kiffin - Unemployed.

What has he ever done to be mentioned with the guys above, who all but for Swinney have actually won a college football game as a head coach. Being a puppet for Al Davis doesn't really mean you were an NFL head coach.

Still a significant number of Tiger fans are on this bandwagon, I'm guessing because he is young and spent some time at Southern Cal.

Status - Unknown.

Week 8 ACC Predictions

For the week 4-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. For the season: 40-15 straight up and 26-15 against the spread. On to week 8 we go.

Florida State 17 NC State (+11 ½) 10
Ga. Tech (-2) 23 Clemson 17
Wake Forest (-1) 24 Maryland 13
Miami (-5) 27 Duke 14
Virginia (+ 5 1/2)17 North Carolina 16
Boston College (- 2 ½) 20 Virginia Tech 10

ACC Update

vs. FCS Teams 15-0
vs. Big 12 4-0
vs. MAC 2-0
vs. C-USA 4-1
vs. PAC 10 1-1
vs. Big East 2-2
vs. Independents 2-1
vs. SEC 2-3
vs. Big Ten 0-1
vs. Sun Belt 0-1

The ACC went a perfect 4-0 in non-conference games this week and continues to show improvement. Georgia Tech crushed Gardner-Webb 10-7, Miami and Virginia both beat Conference USA teams and of course, North Carolina beat Notre Dame.

Dabo hits it out of the park

Man, what a difference a coach makes. As in one that answers questions that are asked of him and says he doesn't know when he doesn't. Dabo Swinney hit it out of the park in his first press conference as Clemson's interim coach Monday morning and then came back for more on Tuesday, announcing among other things that the Tigers will wear all orange on Saturday.

Selected Swinney comments from day 2:

You've got to coach it (toughness) every day. Toughness is hitting first and hitting harder. Toughness is getting up. Toughness is making a mistake and you come back. Toughness is keeping your poise. Toughness is not throwing your helmet on the sideline after making a mistake. Toughness is coming to work when you don't want to come to work, or walking to your class in the rain at the eight in the morning. Toughness in football is who hits the hardest, hits first and hits the longest. We've got some tough guys. It's a tough game played by tough people. That's why there is 22 on the field and 80,000 in the stands. I want every player, including the kicker, be the toughest player on the field.

and this:

I want to reach out to the students here. There are some bridges I want to build. One of the things I believe in, is having to fit into the athletic department that this is the students' football team. They pay tuition here. They take pride in their university and root for their team. Sometimes I think it's us and them and there is a disconnect. That's not the way I want to be around here. We talk a lot about one Clemson. I'm going to do everything I can to promote that. One of the ways we can do that is to reach out to the students. The negativity is gone. It's time to root for these guys. I want the students to rally behind us. We are going to wear all orange. We have a solid orange campaign around here that talks about pride and we are going to show it. It's an orange-out or whatever you want to call it. Let's show some support for this football team. You don't like us coaches that's fine. But let's show some support for this football team because they are out here working. Come to cheer. Be loud. Wear your orange. Let's create an atmosphere. We've got recruits that are still with us and lets show an atmosphere that these kids will want to play in. The other thing I'd like to do, I want to have a student practice. Come to practice. However many of them want to come. No media. Student practice. Come and hang out with the team and watch us work. Another thing- we are going to have a pep rally in the next couple of weeks in their environment. Let's come together as a group.

As I mentioned to two friends today, my new nickname for him is the anti-Bowden. Now you know why.

Conference Power Rankings after week 7

1. SEC 37.58
2. Big Ten 43.73
3. Big 12 44.00
4. ACC 48.92
5. Big East 49.63
6. Mountain West 52.56
7. PAC 10 56.60
8. WAC 70.11
9. Conference USA 83.67
10. Sun Belt 85.00
11. MAC 89.15

Bowden out; search begins

Tommy Bowden resigned this morning after being told that he had to win the conference championship in order to be retained in 2009. Realizing that isn't going to happen, Bowden opted to negotiate a settlement that was very favorable for him.

The search has begun for a replacement.

Stats are for champions

“Stats are for losers”. That’s the word. But really, are stats for losers? Or are there some stats that can lead you to predict who has the best chance to win the National Championship?

Looking back at the national title winners beginning with the 2000 season some trends definitely stand out. Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Interestingly enough offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

So while offense usually gets the headlines and highlights on Sports Center, it’s apparent that defense, particularly top 10 ranked defenses, win championships. The odds of winning a championship without a defense in the top 10 are remote, probably in the 10-15% range. Could it happen? Sure, just as it did in 2002. Will it happen? That’s doubtful.

Which leads me to looking at the teams that still have a shot at the national championship in 2008 at the midway point of the season.

Here are the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC - 4
Penn State - 8
Alabama - 10
Ohio State - 12
Georgia - 15
Florida - 18
Oklahoma - 23
LSU - 32
Kansas - 34
Vanderbilt - 39
Texas - 40
Texas Tech - 64
Oklahoma State - 62
Michigan State – 68
Missouri – 82

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

There is one team that meets or exceeds all of those through week 7 of the 2008 schedule - Penn State. True, the schedule has been weak, hence the 23rd ranking in this weeks power rankings.

We'll keep track of this as the season progresses to see if stats really are for losers...or are they for National Champions.

Power Rankings after week 7

1. Alabama 158.1232
2. Texas 152.9412
3. Michigan State 151.3806
4. Boise State 149.7479
5. Oklahoma State 148.5995
6. Utah 146.9388
7. BYU 140.4762
8. Pittsburgh 140.1681
9. Vanderbilt 138.9356
10.Ohio State 138.2953
11.Georgia 137.5350
12.North Carolina 136.5546
12.Missouri 136.5546
14.Florida 136.1344
15.South Florida 135.1843
16.Oklahoma 134.8740
17.USC 133.7815
18.Minnesota 132.6531
19.Virginia Tech 131.3726
20.Connecticut 130.5322
21.Texas Tech 129.5518
22.Ball State 128.6915
23.Penn State 127.4910
24.Kansas 127.0308
25.Northwestern 126.6107

Willy To Start

Tommy Bowden played one of his last cards on Friday by naming Willy Korn the starter for the Georgia Tech game on Saturday.

In an interesting, or maybe disturbing side note, in the next 3 games Clemson faces 3 defenses currently ranked in the top 6 in total defense, starting with #6 Georgia Tech on Saturday. After a week off, the Tigers will then face #5 Boston College and #2 Florida State on back to back Saturdays on the road.

Opening up a can of Korn

I'd be shocked if Willy Korn plays tonight, other than in an injury situation or a mop-up role. I had high hopes last week, as reports surfaced that there was some discussion among the coaching staff about Korn seeing some time on the field to provide a "spark" for the team.

Why won't Korn play? It doesn't fit Bowden's MO. It doesn't fit Rob Spence's MO. They want no part of a quarterback controversy, even if it costs them games and eventually their jobs. Either Bowden and Spence deserve academy awards for their performance in hiding Korn's preparation for playing time, or tonight will be "same ole', same ole'", with Cullen Harper struggling and the Tigers most likely coming up just short.

Could Korn do any better than Harper? Who really knows? He could be far worse, he could be far better. He could be the same. My guess is that we'll never know until next year, after Harper (and most likely Bowden) is gone. Korn has looked sharp in all 4 appearances (two last year and two this year), albeit against lesser competition. But Harper hasn't looked especially sharp even when playing against that lesser competition, much less against the better teams on the schedule. The fact is Harper hasn't been the same since the Boston College game last November for whatever reason. That's a fact.

What it boils down to is Bowden trusts Harper's experience and mediocre play more than he trusts Korn's aggressive style and inexperience. It's a calculated gamble that paid dividends last year, but is severely lacking positive results this year. If I see Korn on the field by choice tonight, I will be the most surprised observer in the Tiger Nation. Make no mistake - I'll be happy about it, but surprised nonetheless.

Week 7 ACC Predictions

For the week 4-2 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. For the season: 36-14 straight up and 23-14 against the spread.

On to week 7 we go.

Wake Forest (-3) 20 Clemson 16
East Carolina (-5)24 Virginia 16
Georgia Tech 44 Gardner-Webb 6
North Carolina 23 Notre Dame (+7) 17
Miami 33 Central Florida (+15) 20

ACC Update

vs. FCS Teams 14-0
vs. Big 12 4-0
vs. MAC 2-0
vs. C-USA 2-1
vs. PAC 10 1-1
vs. Big East 2-2
vs. Independents 1-1
vs. SEC 2-3
vs. Big Ten 0-1
vs. Sun Belt 0-1

The non-conference action is done for the most part, at least for now, but it was again interesting to here the "mouths" perspective. Somehow, Kansas rallying to beat a horrible Iowa State team was a "shoot-out", while a thoroughly entertaining Florida State 41-39 win over Miami supposedly showed how bad the ACC was. Such is life when your conference is struggling.

Conference Power Rankings after week 6

1. SEC 39.00
2. Big Ten 40.73
3. Big XII 42.83
4. Big East 51.00
5. ACC 51.50
6. Mountain West 53.89
7. PAC 10 56.50
8. WAC 69.11
9. Conference USA 81.58
10. Sun Belt 85.63
11. MAC 90.38

Power Rankings after week 6

1. Vanderbilt 163.8655
2. Alabama 158.1232
3. Boise State 156.0925
4. Utah 151.4006
5. Missouri 145.5462
6. Michigan State 145.3782
7. Texas 144.7059
8. Oklahoma 142.8572
9. Pittsburgh 140.1681
10.Ohio State 139.0756
11.Oklahoma State 138.9916
12.BYU 138.8235
13.Georgia 138.4874
14.South Florida 135.8543
15.Ball State 133.4734
16.Northwestern 132.7731
17.Notre Dame 132.1009
18.Virginia Tech 131.3726
19.Connecticut 130.5322
20.USC 129.6219
21.Minnesota 128.7115
22.LSU 127.3109
23.Florida 126.8907
24.North Carolina 126.5546
25.California 122.6891

Checking in on the prognosticators

Since there is no Clemson game this weekend and we are near the midway point of the season, I thought it might be a good time to do a quick review of the preseason predictions that we are tracking.

A couple of notes –

1. The list below does not contain all of the predictions we are tracking mainly because some only predicted things that won’t be determined until the end of the season (i.e. conference champions).

2. Green means the associated prediction is correct. Red means the prediction was incorrect. Orange means there is some doubt (in some cases SERIOUS doubt, as to whether that prediction will be correct. Black means the end result remains outstanding.

3. In some cases (see Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), part of a prediction came true (or still could come true) and part did not. For example, Georgia COULD go 11-1, but if so, the one loss would not be to Auburn during the regular season.

Colin Cowherd has the early lead in my mind, but he’s still got some huge hurdles ahead, including his final five predictions. 4 of the teams Cowherd picked in the top 5 had losses in September. They still could work out, but the chances aren’t high at this point. He has, however, been very good at picking individual games (in this context), which is not good news for Texas fans.

Pulling up the rear at this point would be Roy Philpott of CUTigers.com, which you expect from a site that is dedicated to one team (homerism) and Phil Steele who is widely regarded as an “expert”. Steele doesn’t have any outright misses yet, but with the predictions he has left, there would have to be a parting of the Red Sea to save him at this point.

Colin Cowherd -ESPN
1. Colorado will beat West Virginia.
2. Michigan State will beat Notre Dame soundly.
3. Alabama will beat Clemson.
4. Missouri will beat Texas handily in Austin.
5. SC will beat LSU.
6. The end of year rankings will look like this: 1. Florida, 2. USC, 3. Ohio State, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Wisconsin.

Mark Bradley – Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1. Alabama will beat Clemson.
2. Auburn will win the SEC West.
3. USC – Ohio State winner will play in the BCS Championship Game.
4. USC will beat Ohio State.
5. Tim Tebow will win another Heisman.
6. Wake Forest will win the ACC Atlantic.
7. Virginia Tech will win the ACC Coastal.
8. Wake will win the ACC Championship Game.
9. West Virginia will beat Auburn on October 23.
10. Texas will win the Big 12.
11. Georgia will go 11-1, win the SEC East (losing to Auburn in regular season), beat Auburn in SEC Championship Game and defeat USC for the National Championship.

Phil Steele - Phil Steele's 2008 College Football Preview
1. Clemson will win the ACC (has the Tigers playing in the Orange Bowl vs. Missouri).
2. Oklahoma will win the Big 12.
3. Florida will win the SEC.
4. Ohio State and Florida will play for the National Championship.
5. Florida will win the National Championship.
6. Final top 5: 1. Florida, 2. Ohio State, 3. Oklahoma, 4. USC, 5. Clemson.

Roy Philpott - CUTigers.com
1. Clemson will beat Alabama.
2. Clemson will lose to Florida State
3. Miami will win the ACC Coastal Division.
4. Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic Division.
5. Clemson will go 12-1, win the ACC title and play Texas in the Orange Bowl.

Kirk Bohls - Austin American-Statesman
1. Sporting News says West Virginia rookie Bill Stewart will better the 11-2 mark of Rich Rodriguez last year. Not a chance. He's overmatched.
2. Nebraska ranks as one of Steele's surprise teams. Agreed.
3. South Florida will beat Kansas.
4. Kansas will not be in a second BCS bowl in a row.
5. Missouri will win the Big 12 North.

Ross Lucksinger, Scout.com
1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC.
2. Missouri will win the Big 12.
3. West Virginia will win the Big East.
4. Ohio State will win the Big 10.
5. USC will win the PAC 10.
6. Georgia will win the SEC.
7. BYU will have an undefeated regular season.
8. Chris Wells will win the Heisman.
9. USC will win the national championship over Georgia.

Pat Forde, ESPN.com
1. Georgia/Florida winner will play for the national championship.
2. Nick Saban will beat either Clemson or Auburn.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
1. Clemson won't win the ACC.
2. Georgia Tech will play in a bowl game.
3. Duke will win more games (at least 3).

Looking back at our preseason top 25 is also interesting. If you recall this was a compilation of 5 or 6 different sources that listed all 119 teams. Four of the top 5 have a loss. 7 of the top 10 have at least one loss (two of these couldn’t be avoided as top 10 teams played each other) and two (Clemson and West Virginia) have two losses. One top 20 team (Tennessee) finished September with 3 losses.

1. Ohio State (1)
2. Georgia (1) tie with USC
2. USC (1) tie with Georgia
4. Florida (2)
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Missouri
8. Clemson
9. Auburn
10.West Virginia
11.Texas
12.Wisconsin
13.Texas Tech
14.Kansas
15.BYU
16.Tennessee
17.Oregon
18.South Florida
19.Arizona State
20.Penn State
21.Virginia Tech
22.Illinois
23.Pittsburgh
24.Wake Forest
25.Florida State

A slight toot of my own horn. I wrote this about Duke prior to the season:

One other thing, and try not to laugh – I expect Duke to make some noise (relatively). They are surprisingly strong (relatively) coming in with the 8th most talent in the ACC. Not sure what that says about the ACC, but I expect the Blue Devils, with improved coaching, to win an ACC game this year (most likely over N.C. State) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 2 (the Devils play both N.C. State and Virginia at home).

Week 6 ACC Predictions

For the week 5-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. For the season: 32-12 straight up and 19-12 against the spread.

On to week 6 we go.

Georgia Tech (-14) 38 Duke 21
Boston College 17 N.C. State (+8) 10
Virginia Tech 34 W. Kentucky 7 (+28)
Florida State (+ 2 1/2) 19 Miami 14
North Carolina 20 Connecticut (+7) 17
Maryland (-14) 24 Virginia 7

ACC Update

vs. FCS Teams 13-0
vs. Big 12 4-0
vs. MAC 2-0
vs. C-USA 2-1
vs. PAC 10 1-1
vs. Big East 1-2
vs. Independents 1-1
vs. SEC 2-3
vs. Big Ten 0-1
vs. Sun Belt 0-1

An otherwise, decent week was wasted with the Wake Forest loss to Navy. Wins over two Big XII teams (FSU over Colorado and Virginia Tech over Nebraska) were overshadowed by the Wake loss.

Definitely a homer comment, but you have to laugh when the Wake Forest two point victory over Mississippi at home "shows just how weak the ACC is", but when the same Mississippi team beats Florida in the Swamp it somehow shows "how tough" the SEC is.