Stats are for champions

“Stats are for losers”. That’s the word. But really, are stats for losers? Or are there some stats that can lead you to predict who has the best chance to win the National Championship?

Looking back at the national title winners beginning with the 2000 season some trends definitely stand out. Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Interestingly enough offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

So while offense usually gets the headlines and highlights on Sports Center, it’s apparent that defense, particularly top 10 ranked defenses, win championships. The odds of winning a championship without a defense in the top 10 are remote, probably in the 10-15% range. Could it happen? Sure, just as it did in 2002. Will it happen? That’s doubtful.

Which leads me to looking at the teams that still have a shot at the national championship in 2008 at the midway point of the season.

Here are the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC - 4
Penn State - 8
Alabama - 10
Ohio State - 12
Georgia - 15
Florida - 18
Oklahoma - 23
LSU - 32
Kansas - 34
Vanderbilt - 39
Texas - 40
Texas Tech - 64
Oklahoma State - 62
Michigan State – 68
Missouri – 82

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

There is one team that meets or exceeds all of those through week 7 of the 2008 schedule - Penn State. True, the schedule has been weak, hence the 23rd ranking in this weeks power rankings.

We'll keep track of this as the season progresses to see if stats really are for losers...or are they for National Champions.