Stats are for champions (part 2)

Last week we took a look at the stats for teams still alive in the national championship race and how their stats aligned with the history of the 10 previous national champions.

In summary, the past 8 national champions (starting in 2000) look like this: Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

With that in mind, here is an updated look at the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC - 2
Penn State – 8
Ohio State – 10
Georgia – 12
Florida - 15
Alabama - 16
LSU - 24
Oklahoma - 34
Texas – 39
Oklahoma State - 47
Texas Tech - 58

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

Penn State’s rushing defense fell to #23 after last Saturday’s game, but they are at or above the other markers. If Penn State wins this week at Ohio State most observers feel they will play in the national championship game, due to their relatively week remaining schedule and the fact that the Big 10 does not have a championship game. The loser of this game will be eliminated in my opinion, due to the perceived weakness of the Big 10.

Either LSU or Georgia is going to suffer their second loss this week when they meet in Baton Rouge, and the loser is most likely going to be eliminated from this discussion. Georgia still has to play Florida next week and whoever survives will still have to win an SEC Championship game.

Texas or Oklahoma State is going to suffer their first loss this week and if it is Oklahoma State that loses that battle, they are probably out of the race, too.

So this is a huge week in settling the national picture and really getting down to the nuts and bolts of who is left with a shot at the title.

We'll continue to update this as the season progresses.