Stats are for champions (part 3)

In installment 3 of “Stats are for champions” we take a look at the stats for teams still alive in the national championship race and how their stats aligned with the history of the 10 previous national champions.

Teams eliminated this past Saturday: LSU and Ohio State each suffered their second loss, while Oklahoma State was edged by Texas.

In summary, the past 8 national champions (starting in 2000) look like this: Of those 8 title winners only one (Ohio State in 2002) finished below 10th (23rd) in total defense. The average ranking of the total defense for those 8 teams was 8th.

Offense has not been as important statistic in determining the national champion. The average rank for those 8 offenses was 23rd and only 2 of the 8 champions (Miami in 2001 and Texas in 2005) had offenses finish in the top 10. The 2002 Ohio State team actually won the national title while being ranked 70th in total offense. The 2007 LSU team finished 26th in offense and the 2003 LSU team finished 31st in total offense.

With that in mind, here is an updated look at the teams, in my opinion, that remain with a realistic chance at the national title and their current defensive rankings:

USC – 1
Alabama – 5
Penn State – 8
Florida - 13
Georgia – 21
Texas – 43
Oklahoma - 54
Texas Tech - 58

To take this a step further, over the last 8 years the average rankings for the National Champions has been:

Total Defense - 8
Rushing Defense - 15
Passing Defense - 26
Total Offense - 23
Rushing Offense - 29
Passing Offense - 40

After it’s victory over Ohio State Saturday Penn State is at or above every marker, but yet aren’t even guaranteed a shot at the BCS title game at this point, even if they remain undefeated. As long as an SEC team (Alabama) and a Big 12 team (Texas or Texas Tech) remain unbeaten Penn State may be on the outside looking in. The best the Lions can hope for is a Texas Tech victory this week and then hope that the Red Raiders stumble down the stretch (OU and Oklahoma State are still on their schedule).

Texas travels to Texas Tech this week and Georgia and Florida square off in Jacksonville. The view here is that a Tech loss will eliminate the Red Raiders, but a loss won’t necessarily eliminate Texas. The loser of Georgia-Florida will be eliminated. Again, this is a huge week in settling the national picture and really getting down to the nuts and bolts of who is left with a shot at the title. We'll continue to update this as the season progresses.