Checking in on the prognosticators

Since there is no Clemson game this weekend and we are near the midway point of the season, I thought it might be a good time to do a quick review of the preseason predictions that we are tracking.

A couple of notes –

1. The list below does not contain all of the predictions we are tracking mainly because some only predicted things that won’t be determined until the end of the season (i.e. conference champions).

2. Green means the associated prediction is correct. Red means the prediction was incorrect. Orange means there is some doubt (in some cases SERIOUS doubt, as to whether that prediction will be correct. Black means the end result remains outstanding.

3. In some cases (see Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), part of a prediction came true (or still could come true) and part did not. For example, Georgia COULD go 11-1, but if so, the one loss would not be to Auburn during the regular season.

Colin Cowherd has the early lead in my mind, but he’s still got some huge hurdles ahead, including his final five predictions. 4 of the teams Cowherd picked in the top 5 had losses in September. They still could work out, but the chances aren’t high at this point. He has, however, been very good at picking individual games (in this context), which is not good news for Texas fans.

Pulling up the rear at this point would be Roy Philpott of CUTigers.com, which you expect from a site that is dedicated to one team (homerism) and Phil Steele who is widely regarded as an “expert”. Steele doesn’t have any outright misses yet, but with the predictions he has left, there would have to be a parting of the Red Sea to save him at this point.

Colin Cowherd -ESPN
1. Colorado will beat West Virginia.
2. Michigan State will beat Notre Dame soundly.
3. Alabama will beat Clemson.
4. Missouri will beat Texas handily in Austin.
5. SC will beat LSU.
6. The end of year rankings will look like this: 1. Florida, 2. USC, 3. Ohio State, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Wisconsin.

Mark Bradley – Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1. Alabama will beat Clemson.
2. Auburn will win the SEC West.
3. USC – Ohio State winner will play in the BCS Championship Game.
4. USC will beat Ohio State.
5. Tim Tebow will win another Heisman.
6. Wake Forest will win the ACC Atlantic.
7. Virginia Tech will win the ACC Coastal.
8. Wake will win the ACC Championship Game.
9. West Virginia will beat Auburn on October 23.
10. Texas will win the Big 12.
11. Georgia will go 11-1, win the SEC East (losing to Auburn in regular season), beat Auburn in SEC Championship Game and defeat USC for the National Championship.

Phil Steele - Phil Steele's 2008 College Football Preview
1. Clemson will win the ACC (has the Tigers playing in the Orange Bowl vs. Missouri).
2. Oklahoma will win the Big 12.
3. Florida will win the SEC.
4. Ohio State and Florida will play for the National Championship.
5. Florida will win the National Championship.
6. Final top 5: 1. Florida, 2. Ohio State, 3. Oklahoma, 4. USC, 5. Clemson.

Roy Philpott - CUTigers.com
1. Clemson will beat Alabama.
2. Clemson will lose to Florida State
3. Miami will win the ACC Coastal Division.
4. Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic Division.
5. Clemson will go 12-1, win the ACC title and play Texas in the Orange Bowl.

Kirk Bohls - Austin American-Statesman
1. Sporting News says West Virginia rookie Bill Stewart will better the 11-2 mark of Rich Rodriguez last year. Not a chance. He's overmatched.
2. Nebraska ranks as one of Steele's surprise teams. Agreed.
3. South Florida will beat Kansas.
4. Kansas will not be in a second BCS bowl in a row.
5. Missouri will win the Big 12 North.

Ross Lucksinger, Scout.com
1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC.
2. Missouri will win the Big 12.
3. West Virginia will win the Big East.
4. Ohio State will win the Big 10.
5. USC will win the PAC 10.
6. Georgia will win the SEC.
7. BYU will have an undefeated regular season.
8. Chris Wells will win the Heisman.
9. USC will win the national championship over Georgia.

Pat Forde, ESPN.com
1. Georgia/Florida winner will play for the national championship.
2. Nick Saban will beat either Clemson or Auburn.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
1. Clemson won't win the ACC.
2. Georgia Tech will play in a bowl game.
3. Duke will win more games (at least 3).

Looking back at our preseason top 25 is also interesting. If you recall this was a compilation of 5 or 6 different sources that listed all 119 teams. Four of the top 5 have a loss. 7 of the top 10 have at least one loss (two of these couldn’t be avoided as top 10 teams played each other) and two (Clemson and West Virginia) have two losses. One top 20 team (Tennessee) finished September with 3 losses.

1. Ohio State (1)
2. Georgia (1) tie with USC
2. USC (1) tie with Georgia
4. Florida (2)
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Missouri
8. Clemson
9. Auburn
10.West Virginia
11.Texas
12.Wisconsin
13.Texas Tech
14.Kansas
15.BYU
16.Tennessee
17.Oregon
18.South Florida
19.Arizona State
20.Penn State
21.Virginia Tech
22.Illinois
23.Pittsburgh
24.Wake Forest
25.Florida State

A slight toot of my own horn. I wrote this about Duke prior to the season:

One other thing, and try not to laugh – I expect Duke to make some noise (relatively). They are surprisingly strong (relatively) coming in with the 8th most talent in the ACC. Not sure what that says about the ACC, but I expect the Blue Devils, with improved coaching, to win an ACC game this year (most likely over N.C. State) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 2 (the Devils play both N.C. State and Virginia at home).