Conventional wisdom says that Clemson has the most talent in the ACC. While that may be true at the skill positions, analysis shows that's far from the truth for the team as a whole when looking at two-deep lineups. As a matter of fact, Clemson comes in 3rd in the ACC using this measure, and barely third at that, just above North Carolina.
Miami has far and away more talent than any team in the ACC, followed by Florida State. Interestingly enough these are the two teams that have “been down” in recent years and given credence to the ACC bashing that is so prominent today.
If these teams are so talented why haven’t they performed that way on the field? I would venture to say coaching is a huge part of the answer – one hasn’t been there long enough and one has been there too long. Both however have made recent changes (Jimbo Fisher to FSU and a new defensive coordinator at Miami).
I look for Miami and Florida State to make big strides this year, though I don’t predict either to win their division. Simply put, much of the talent on these teams is young. Is that an excuse? No, just an observation.
In addition, neither has proven talent at quarterback. Yes, I know Drew Weatherford has 33 starts under his belt at FSU, but he's inconsistent to say the least. Miami, on the other hand has 0 experience at QB. Sometimes that works out (Clemson in ’07), sometimes it doesn’t (Clemson in ’06). But both of those QBs (Proctor in ’06 and Cullen Harper in ’07) had years in the system, where Miami’s QBs don’t have that luxury.
Below is the analysis I’ve done on the talent level of the two-deep lineups for the ACC teams, first with all teams combined, and then broken out by division.
ACC Talent Level - All Teams
Miami has far and away more talent than any team in the ACC, followed by Florida State. Interestingly enough these are the two teams that have “been down” in recent years and given credence to the ACC bashing that is so prominent today.
If these teams are so talented why haven’t they performed that way on the field? I would venture to say coaching is a huge part of the answer – one hasn’t been there long enough and one has been there too long. Both however have made recent changes (Jimbo Fisher to FSU and a new defensive coordinator at Miami).
I look for Miami and Florida State to make big strides this year, though I don’t predict either to win their division. Simply put, much of the talent on these teams is young. Is that an excuse? No, just an observation.
In addition, neither has proven talent at quarterback. Yes, I know Drew Weatherford has 33 starts under his belt at FSU, but he's inconsistent to say the least. Miami, on the other hand has 0 experience at QB. Sometimes that works out (Clemson in ’07), sometimes it doesn’t (Clemson in ’06). But both of those QBs (Proctor in ’06 and Cullen Harper in ’07) had years in the system, where Miami’s QBs don’t have that luxury.
Below is the analysis I’ve done on the talent level of the two-deep lineups for the ACC teams, first with all teams combined, and then broken out by division.
ACC Talent Level - All Teams
1. Miami - Offense 3.41 Defense 3.55 Total 6.96
2. Florida State - Offense 3.09 Defense 3.23 Total 6.32
3. Clemson - Offense 2.95 Defense 3.14 Total 6.09
4. North Carolina - Offense 2.82 Defense 3.18 Total 6.00
5. Virginia Tech - Offense 2.76 Defense 2.65 Total 5.41
6. Maryland - Offense 2.55 Defense 2.64 Total 5.19
7. Georgia Tech - Offense 2.32 Defense 2.77 Total 5.09
8. Duke - Offense 2.55 Defense 2.50 Total 5.05
9. Boston College - Offense 2.45 Defense 2.55 Total 5.00
10.Virginia - Offense 2.55 Defense 2.45 Total 5.00
11. Wake Forest - Offense 2.18 Defense 2.32 Total 4.50
12. North Carolina State - Offense 2.09 Defense 2.27 Total 4.36
Atlantic Division
1. Florida State - 6.32
2. Clemson - 6.09
3. Maryland - 5.19
4. Boston College - 5.00
5. Wake Forest - 4.50
6. North Carolina State - 4.36
Coastal Division
1. Miami - 6.96
2. North Carolina - 6.00
3. Virginia Tech - 5.41
4. Georgia Tech - 5.09
5. Duke - 5.05
6. Virginia - 5.00
It’s obvious from this research what everyone has been saying for the last two years – Jim Grobe is doing a masterful job at Wake Forest, while Frank Beamer is doing something similar over a longer period of time at Virginia Tech.
Below is my best guess on how the ACC races will play out, based on the information I have at hand. The biggest factors here are talent, experience, scheduling and coaching. As mentioned above, Grobe and Beamer have the biggest effects (positively) on their teams. Despite their relative weakness in player ratings, they will have their teams in contention and I even think Virginia Tech will win their division. Meanwhile, Butch Davis is quietly assembling quality players at North Carolina.
FSU has Wake, Clemson and Boston College all at home – I expect they will win 2 of the 3. Clemson plays FSU, Wake and Boston College all on the road. I expect Clemson will lose one of those three.
Miami and North Carolina aren’t quite ready to make the leap over Virginia Tech yet, but if the current trend (recruiting) continues, look out.
Below is my best guess on how the ACC races will play out, based on the information I have at hand. The biggest factors here are talent, experience, scheduling and coaching. As mentioned above, Grobe and Beamer have the biggest effects (positively) on their teams. Despite their relative weakness in player ratings, they will have their teams in contention and I even think Virginia Tech will win their division. Meanwhile, Butch Davis is quietly assembling quality players at North Carolina.
FSU has Wake, Clemson and Boston College all at home – I expect they will win 2 of the 3. Clemson plays FSU, Wake and Boston College all on the road. I expect Clemson will lose one of those three.
Miami and North Carolina aren’t quite ready to make the leap over Virginia Tech yet, but if the current trend (recruiting) continues, look out.
I expect North Carolina to be the surprise team of the ACC. I believe they will win 9 regular season games in Butch Davis' 2nd year.
One other thing, and try not to laugh – I expect Duke to make some noise (relatively). They are surprisingly strong (relatively) coming in with the 8th most talent in the ACC. Not sure what that says about the ACC, but I expect the Blue Devils, with improved coaching, to win an ACC game this year (most likely over N.C. State) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 2 (the Devils play both N.C. State and Virginia at home). And one last little Duke nugget - they received 16 verbal commitments for 2009 in the month of July - 16 in one month! - to bring their total for 2009 to 21. Though, admittedly these are mostly recruits that top flight schools aren't recruiting, make no mistake about it - this program will be vastly improved in the years to come under Cutcliffe.
Atlantic
One other thing, and try not to laugh – I expect Duke to make some noise (relatively). They are surprisingly strong (relatively) coming in with the 8th most talent in the ACC. Not sure what that says about the ACC, but I expect the Blue Devils, with improved coaching, to win an ACC game this year (most likely over N.C. State) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 2 (the Devils play both N.C. State and Virginia at home). And one last little Duke nugget - they received 16 verbal commitments for 2009 in the month of July - 16 in one month! - to bring their total for 2009 to 21. Though, admittedly these are mostly recruits that top flight schools aren't recruiting, make no mistake about it - this program will be vastly improved in the years to come under Cutcliffe.
Atlantic
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Wake Forest
4. Boston College
5. Maryland
6. North Carolina State
Coastal
1. Virginia Tech
2. Miami
3. North Carolina
4. Georgia Tech
5. Virginia
6. Duke
I expect Clemson to end up 10-2 or 11-1. Who are the Tigers going to lose to? Let's not forget the Tigers have some holes - offensive line and linebackers are two areas that need to be addressed. There's talent, but not much experience. Oh yeah, and special teams, let's not forget these seem to bite the Tigers at least once a year. These facts along with playing an improving Alabama team in a neutral setting to open the season, Florida State and Wake Forest on the road, and oh yeah, Spurrier and the Gamecocks will be coming off an open week when they meet the Tigers in Clemson in late November, lead me to believe that 12-0 is a stretch. Impossible? No. But also not likely.
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