More Phil Steele

A while back I questioned the overload of sometimes contradictory information Phil Steele’s magazine. While doing the research for that piece I did discover some interesting nuggets.

Steele has a “system” based on returning/lost lettermen which says:

1. If a team has 79% or higher of their lettermen and 18 or more starters returning you have an 80% chance of improving your record.

2. Conversely, if a team has 60.5% or less lettermen returning, 11 or less starters returning and no returning starter at quarterback you have a 75% chance of having a weaker record.

Let’s tackle number 2 first as it seems to make more sense to me. The only two teams that fall into this category in 2008 are Virginia and Air Force who both happened to have 9-4 records in 2007. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that if you have a relatively small amount of lettermen returning, at least half of your starters gone and a new quarterback that it’s going to be a tough year. Especially if the year before you won 9 games. Simple – I think Steele’s hit the jackpot here.

Item 1 gets a bit stickier. The teams (2007 records in parenthesis) in this category are: Temple (4-8), Northern Illinois (2-10), Ohio State (11-2), Texas Tech (9-4) and Florida Atlantic (8-5).

It’s not hard to fathom Northern Illinois winning 3 games. Ohio State, barring injury, should go 11-1 at worst and have a chance to improve their record in a bowl game, but as we’ve seen the last couple of years that’s a risky proposition with the Buckeyes. Temple has all 22 starters back, but a couple of those wins were close and things may not go their way in 2008 – I’d say, at best they win 5.

Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule makes them a lock to win 9 unless they collapse, the question is will they win 10. Probably.

Florida Atlantic opens at Texas and then goes to Michigan State and Minnesota back to back in weeks 3 and 4. Last year they upset Minnesota at home, I doubt they are as lucky this year. Assuming they lose all three would mean they would have to go 9-1 the rest of the season (including bowl game) to improve their record. The Owls play in the Sun Belt Conference so it’s possible, but...I’d say that is a long shot at best.

Here’s my guess: Yes – Northern Illinois, Texas Tech and Ohio State. No – Temple and Florida Atlantic.

It’s important to note that Steele’s percentages are tracked over multiple years. These teams may or may not hit the averages this year, but over time Steele’s hypothesis is that teams in category 1 improve their record 80% of the time and those in category 2 get worse 75% of the time.