Final College Hoops Thoughts

Just like during the football season, my basketball stats held up. I gave you three teams (including the overall number one seed) that wouldn't win the tourney and also gave you the team that would - North Carolina.

I'm not claiming to be able to predict champions - what I did was looked at the attributes of teams in the past that have won the national championship and applied it to this years teams.

On the other hand, the mouths that people listen to, look up to and hold up as the greatest prognosticators ever, well, fell flat on their face.

On SI.com, 3 of the 5 had the right champion, but of the 20 picks for the final four only 8 made it. 2 had Wake Forest in the final four and they didn't win a game.

On Fox Sports, Jeff Goodman had one of the final four teams and came in 569th in the pool.

Also on Fox, Jason Whitlock gave us 10 picks we could book. Problem is, Whitlock's 10 locks went 4-6.

Colin Cowherd is widely thought of to be dead spot on with his picks. While, it's since been removed from his web site (shocker!), Cowherd came in 3rd on his own show (just ahead of the two women) out of 5 contestants. Somewhere around 50,000 people came out ahead of him in his own pick 'em. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The facts are that in the last 6 years no team has made the final four with a defensive efficiency of less than 25. In those same 6 years, the eventual champion had an offensive efficiency of no lower than 4. 3 of the 6 were ranked #1 in offensive efficiency, including North Carolina this year.

So while people were saying Louisville or Memphis and maybe even Connecticut, I knew these teams didn't stand a chance (statistically speaking). Then Duke and Pittsburgh went out and it became clear that UNC would win it all. And they did.