Three teams that can win it all

1. Pittsburgh
2. North Carolina
3. Duke

Everyone seems to be off the Duke bandwagon after the sub-par performances the last couple of years in the tournament. Fair enough. Will that continue this year or will the Blue Devils break through? The numbers say that Duke is the closest statistical match to a national champion this year heading into the tournament, only missing the defensive efficiency requirement by 5 spots. Odds are that the Blue Devils will improve their defensive efficiency in the first two games this weekend. Yet this is a team that lost by 27 while only scoring 47 against Clemson in early February, and has lost to UNC twice, so questions remain.

Which brings us to Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Both have stellar offensive units (ranked 1 and 2 respectively), both have mediocre defenses (ranked 34th and 35th respectively). These defensive ratings indicate they aren't contenders for the title. But remember, they potentially have 6 games (including bottom feeders in game 1) to improve that ranking.

The wild card is Ty Lawson's injury (or any one's injury for that matter). If he plays without the effects you have to like UNC's chances. If he doesn't play or plays injured you don't.

Duke and North Carolina could end up playing each other in the South Regional Final. North Carolina has beaten Duke twice this year. If they met for a third time who would have the advantage? North Carolina? Duke?

Over the last 5 years the worst defensive efficiency for a national champion was 12th. The lowest offensive efficiency was 4, which is why I wrote yesterday that Connecticut, Louisville and Memphis won't win it all.

The lone dark horse we see is Gonzaga, which happens to be ranked 6th in OE and 9th in DE. Problem is their schedule has not provided much competition except for Memphis in the last 19 games (18-1), so the RPI isn't where it should be. Yet this is a team that has beaten Tennessee twice, plus Oklahoma State and Maryland. To pick Gonzaga would mean a leap of faith that the Zags would end the season winning 24 of 25 and consistently beat much better competition than they have faced all year. Possible, but not likely.

The tournament truly appears to be wide open this year, with no dominant team establishing themselves as the clear cut favorite, at least statistically.