An early look at the projected final four and champ

Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of defensive efficiency in determining which teams will make the final four. Since that time I've done a bit of research and found that while being in the top 25 in defensive efficiency is typically a must for a final four team, other factors determine which team will emerge from the final four as the champion.

Over the last 5 years the recipe for reaching the final four has looked like this:

DE<=25
OE<=50
RPI<=27

Interestingly enough, once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important. During that same time frame the recipe for winning the national championship has looked like this:

DE<=12
OE<=4
RPI<=16

I have included two tables at the bottom of the page that will periodically keep tabs on this information as the season continues. These are not prognostications, but rather using history as a guideline to determine which teams have the best chance to reach the final four and become the champion. Prior to the tourney in March we will have a "final" list of teams that meet the final four and national champion criteria.

Final Four contenders through games of January 21, 2009

Team	Def Eff Rank	Off Eff Rank	RPI Rank
Duke	3	14	1
Wake Forest	6	48	16
West Virginia	7	28	26
Illinois	9	43	23
Xavier	10	45	6
North Carolina	11	1	4
Arizona State	17	10	19
Pittsburgh	19	2	2
Connecticut	25	5	5

National Championship contenders through games of January 21, 2009

Team	Def Eff Rank	Off Eff Rank	RPI Rank
North Carolina	11	1	4